Op-ed: The fall of the Assad regime: A time for hope but tinged with uncertainty

By Tareq Alaows, Refugee Policy Spokesperson at ECRE member organisation PRO ASYL

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria is undoubtedly a historic event – one that many people in Syria and around the world experienced with mixed emotions: full of hope yet tinged with uncertainty. For millions of Syrians who suffered under the brutal regime, the overthrow of the Assad family represents liberation from a tyranny that lasted more than five decades. It signifies the end of a regime that maintained its power through violence and oppression, marked by countless human rights violations, torture, murder and arbitrary arrests. Many Syrians, both in exile and within the country, see this moment as an opportunity for a new beginning – a transition to a democratic and free Syria.

The fall of the Assad dictatorship is a victory for the Syrian people; it symbolises the resilience and courage of those who rose against the regime over the years, despite the immense risks to their lives. The Syrian revolution, which began in 2011 as a peaceful protest movement, evolved into a prolonged and bloody struggle, involving numerous actors, including Islamist groups and international powers. The fall of Assad is thus not only the end of a dictatorship but also the conclusion of a geopolitical era that turned Syria into a pawn in a larger game of global interests.

However, this historic moment must also be viewed with a sober perspective; joy should not cloud clear judgment. While the destruction of the Assad regime creates room for change, the power dynamics in the country remain uncertain. Islamist groups continue to be a dominant force in Syria’s political landscape, and the question of who will shape the country’s political future remains unanswered. The next steps will be crucial in ensuring that the coming years are not marked by further conflict, instability, and new forms of persecution.

For the international community, it is now of utmost importance to actively engage in Syria’s reconstruction – materially, politically and socially. Building a just and stable country requires not only rebuilding infrastructure but also fostering civil society forces striving for a democratic Syria. If this transition is successfully managed, the fall of Bashar al-Assad could indeed become a turning point in the history of the country and the region – a victory for freedom, democracy and human rights.

Regarding the reactions of European countries to the fall of the Assad regime, the debate over the return of refugees is not only inappropriate but also highly problematic. Particularly in Germany and Austria, discussions about the repatriation of Syrian refugees have already begun – a debate that is both legally unfeasible and morally irresponsible at this stage. The situation in Syria remains far from safe, and returning under these conditions poses significant risks to those affected. These debates are perceived by many in the Syrian community as a form of political exploitation of their situation, disregarding the realities on the ground.

Germany and Europe could, instead, play a far more constructive role. With its expertise in addressing human rights violations and supporting justice processes, Germany could take a leading role in the international prosecution of those responsible for the crimes of the Assad dictatorship. Germany could actively support the Syrian exile community in initiating processes to address crimes against humanity. Furthermore, Germany has the potential to prioritise the support of Syrian civil society by fostering the reconstruction of democracy and freedom. This includes the urgent need to provide swift humanitarian aid to Syria to address the immediate needs of its people.