Watching Trump’s second term unfold from the Middle East

Observing the unfolding of President Donald Trump’s second term from the Middle East is as confusing and disorienting as it must be from the United States. In Palestine, Egypt, and Jordan, urgent concern is focused on Trump’s surprise plan to take over the Gaza Strip, displace its population, and rebuild it as the “Riviera of the Middle East.” In Israel, the right wing is extremely pleased with Trump’s gift, but they don’t know what he has planned for the West Bank. In the Arab Gulf monarchies, leaders are generally happy to be dealing with Trump again but are alarmed by the recklessness of his Gaza plan and concerned about the potential impact his energy and tariff policies could have on their economies.  

To start with, there was little regret in the region to see the departure of the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris team. In the aftermath of the Hamas attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Arab public opinion soured on the outgoing administration as it lent support to Israel’s war of devastation in Gaza. Key leaders in the Gulf had never fully gotten over Biden’s early disdain for them, even though he had changed approach midway through his administration. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and most Israelis welcomed Biden’s warm support, but the government clashed with him over policy in Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank, and they did not appreciate Harris’s position on Palestinian issues.

Even before he took office, Trump was influencing events in the region. His insistence on ending wars appeared to have the effect of pressing Netanyahu to accept cease-fire agreements in both Lebanon (in November) and Gaza (days before the inauguration). In addition to ending wars, his electoral campaign had focused on supporting Israel, seeking a historic three-way US-Saudi-Israel deal, and resuming "maximum pressure" on Iran. His campaign also pledged to reduce American entanglements in the Middle East.

His surprise announcement on Gaza on Feb. 4 during the Israeli prime minister’s visit to Washington seemed to come out of a different universe than most of that campaign rhetoric. Netanyahu and the Israeli right wing enthusiastically welcomed his announcement, while Arab capitals, including Cairo, Amman, and Riyadh, immediately and flatly rejected it.  

The pros and cons of getting what you asked for

Ever the surpriser-in-chief, Trump put out a teaser during his press conference with Netanyahu that he would make an announcement on the West Bank soon. He is leaving the region guessing as to whether he will support an equally hard-line position on the occupied territory, including large-scale annexation, or use his gambit on Gaza to go in another direction, urging an Israeli-Palestinian compromise that would enable Saudi-Israeli normalization and a tripartite US-Saudi-Israeli agreement.  

Another element of uncertainty, which is also of major concern to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf capitals, is his policy on Iran. Urging strikes on Iran was probably one of Netanyahu’s main talking points during his meeting with Trump last week, and while Trump has been hawkish on Iran and signed the maximum pressure policy back into effect in one of his executive orders, he said he was torn about doing so and that he preferred a deal with Iran over its nuclear program to having to consider supporting an Israeli strike on the country. The foregrounding of talks is probably not welcome news in Israel, but it generates a sigh of relief in Arab Gulf capitals that have normalized their relations with Tehran in recent years.

Indeed, Netanyahu might be quite wary of his unfolding relationship with Trump 2.0. He went to Washington to get US support for an Israeli strike on Iran; instead, Trump said he prefers talks to strikes. He might have been pleased with Trump’s Gaza announcement, but he also realizes that he went to DC with Gaza and came home without it: now it’s Trump’s. By claiming Gaza for the US — and even going so far as to say “we’re going to take it” during his meeting with Jordan’s King Abdullah — Trump now holds the Gaza card, and future negotiations over the enclave will largely go through him. Having been rejected on Iran and deprived of Gaza, Netanyahu might be worried that Trump’s bull-in-a-china-shop approach is coming to the West Bank next. The Israeli prime minister might be missing the days when he could essentially bully Biden into going along with whatever policy he chose; Trump is now calling the shots, and Netanyahu has to stand beside him and nod approvingly.

It is no secret that most leaders in Arab Gulf capitals were looking forward to reengaging with Trump after four years of Biden. But putting the Israeli-Palestinian and Iran issues aside, there are some real concerns about what his energy and tariff policies will mean for their economies and how the president will deal with them at a time when close friends and allies like Canada and Denmark have come in for some harsh treatment. And while Gulf leaders generally like his transactional and business-minded approach to politics — they too want to maintain a transactional and business-like relationship as they look to America for many of their strategic, investment, and business projects, and look to China, Russia, and other international players in other sectors — there are some concerns that his unpredictable and disruptive approach to policy might too frequently veer toward the dangerously illogical, his proposal for the US to take over Gaza being Exhibit A.

Goodwill squandered as core values discarded

On the humanitarian front, the shutting down of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the suspension of most US foreign aid have sent shock waves through the humanitarian aid institutions and networks in the Middle East and North Africa, and through the millions of displaced, refugee, and vulnerable families that they support. The decision could cost thousands of lives and upend countless more, and represents a unilateral ceding of wells of goodwill and soft power that the US has accumulated over decades, despite wide opposition to elements of its foreign policy. The shutting down of pro-civil-society and pro-democracy programs might warm the hearts of autocrats, but it dispirits those who still struggle for more representative and responsive governance.

Going all the way back to the establishment of the American University of Beirut in 1866, the US educational and humanitarian presence in the MENA region always carried weight.

As I drove by the US embassy in Lebanon a few days ago, I was alarmed to feel that, when I looked at the American seal, it no longer seemed to "represent" any particular set of high values or aspirations beyond what gains a transactional US administration might have in its immediate crosshairs.

For the pockets of pro-democracy and good governance advocates that still are active, though struggling, in most countries of the MENA region, the descent of the US into increasing authoritarianism, illiberalism, and poor governance is especially alarming and dispiriting. While many in the past aspired to make Middle Eastern governments move toward the ideals and institutions of American democracy, the US itself seems rather to be moving toward the forms of autocratic and illiberal governance that proliferate in the Middle East.

 

Paul Salem is MEI’s Vice President for International Engagement.

Photo by Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images